Latticework by MOI Global: In-depth investment idea presentations

TBC Bank: A Mispriced Digital Growth Story in Central Asia

MOI Global Equity Research — Wed, 25 Mar 2026 20:33:39 GMT

Jean Pierre Verster of Protea Capital Management presented his investment thesis on TBC Bank Group (UK: TBCG) at Best Ideas 2026.

Thesis summary:

TBC Bank Group is a holding company operating two distinct banking entities in the Caucasus and Central Asia. TBC Bank Georgia, a universal bank, generates approximately 90% of group profits and holds a 40% market share in a stable duopolistic market. The remaining 10% of profits stem from TBC Uzbekistan, a high-growth digital venture mirroring the “super-app” strategy of fintech players like Kaspi. While the Georgian operation provides a foundation of stability, the expansion into Uzbekistan offers exposure to a market with ten times the population of Georgia and low banking penetration.

The Georgian operation anchors the thesis with consistent returns, having compounded earnings while maintaining long-term ROEs above 20%. Established in 1992, the bank has transitioned from a traditional physical network to a strong digital offering. Despite being situated in a region with perceived geopolitical friction—bordering Russia and occupied territories—the currency has remained relatively flat against the British Pound over the last decade, and the economy has benefited from recent migration inflows. The high level of dollarization in the Georgian economy is being actively managed through central bank “larization” initiatives to decrease foreign exchange risk.

Jean Pierre highlights Uzbekistan as the primary growth engine, leveraging a population of nearly 40 million to deploy a fintech-enabled strategy. Through acquisitions of payment provider Payme and e-classifieds platform OLX, TBC is building an ecosystem to capture a young, digitally savvy demographic. While this segment has delivered rapid loan growth, recent regulatory interventions aimed at curbing unsecured lending and a tick-up in NPLs suggest a near-term moderation in expansion rates. Consequently, the bank is pivoting toward secured and SME lending to de-risk the Uzbek book over the coming years.

Governance and capital allocation are anchored by a management team led by a CEO who has served since 1995. The group maintains a dividend payout ratio between 35% and 40%, supplementing shareholder returns with share buybacks when excess capital is available. Although the founder’s recent legal issues and subsequent pardon present a headline risk, the operational leadership has continued to deliver efficiency improvements, driving the cost-to-income ratio down to approximately 38%.

Regarding valuation, Jean Pierre argues the market misprices the gap between the company’s fundamental performance and its share price. The stock recently traded at a P/E of roughly 6x and a trailing tangible P/B of 1.3x, despite consistent ROEs exceeding 20% and healthy capital adequacy. Jean Pierre suggests a fair multiple would be closer to 2x tangible book value. A narrowing of this valuation gap, combined with earnings growth and a ~6% dividend yield, could support a 25% CAGR, potentially doubling the share price to around £80 by 2029.

Disclaimer

Best Ideas 2026 was held from January 6-23, 2026. The content of this website is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. The content is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to sell or buy any security or other investment, or undertake any investment strategy. There are no warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, or results obtained from any information set forth on this website. BeyondProxy’s officers, directors, employees, and/or contributing authors may have positions in and may, from time to time, make purchases or sales of the securities or other investments discussed or evaluated herein.

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Jean Pierre Verster on TBC Bank

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Gimat: The Turkish “Costco” With a Decades-Long Growth Runway

MOI Global Equity Research — Fri, 20 Mar 2026 21:00:24 GMT

Monsoon Pabrai of Drew Investments presented her in-depth investment thesis on Gimat (Turkey: GMTAS) at Best Ideas 2026.

Thesis summary:

Gimat is an Ankara-based wholesaler-retailer operating a hybrid business model that combines a wholesale market, a modern consumer hypermarket, and a real estate-anchored ecosystem. Born from a cooperative of over 1,000 wholesalers in the early 1990s, Gimat functions similarly to a “Turkish Costco,” selling in bulk with low margins while owning its real estate assets. This structure provides a natural hedge against Turkey’s high inflation environment, protecting the company from rent escalation and supply chain disruptions. The company currently operates two locations, with the flagship store generating ~$1,200 in sales per square foot and gross margins exceeding 20%. The shareholder base remains unique, with 99% free float and thousands of small holders, largely descendants of the original cooperative members, ensuring a culture focused on continuity and working capital efficiency rather than aggressive corporate expansion.

The company’s expansion strategy is conservative and disciplined, aiming to open one new store roughly every two years. Each unit requires approximately 1 billion lira to build and reaches maturity within 18 to 24 months. The second location, opened recently, reached profitability faster than anticipated. Long-term goals include consolidating presence in Ankara before expanding to other major Turkish provinces and potentially Germany, leveraging the large Turkish diaspora. While the company does not currently charge a membership fee—a key differentiator from the Costco model—management is exploring options such as paid parking passes to introduce a membership-like revenue stream. The focus remains on sustainable growth that does not compromise their thin net margins, which historically sit near 1-2% but are bolstered by asset appreciation and high inventory turnover.

Management is led by General Manager Recai Kesimal, who holds proxies for over 25% of the wholesaler base. Kesimal’s approach is characterized by a “service” mindset, prioritizing the stability and longevity of the enterprise over short-term shareholder value creation. This alignment ensures operational discipline and aversion to excessive leverage or risky scaling. While the lack of large institutional investors and the fragmented ownership structure might typically raise governance concerns, the deep communal ties and the management’s track record of capital preservation mitigate these risks. The leadership is actively studying Costco’s operational and cultural efficiencies to further optimize their low-cost model.

Gimat recently traded at a market capitalization of approximately $156 million, which Monsoon argues is slightly below its estimated intrinsic value of $175 million. This intrinsic value calculation aggregates the earnings power of the two existing stores—generating roughly $11 million in PAT, valued at a conservative 10x multiple—and the real estate value of the “Gimat Arena” development. The latter includes projected office sales of $50 million and retained commercial property yielding $1 million in annual rent, capitalized at 6.5%. Despite trailing P/E ratios appearing inflated due to Turkish inflation accounting, the underlying asset base and cash flow generation present a “heads I win, tails I don’t lose too much” scenario, offering a free option on future growth for patient capital.

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Monsoon Pabrai on Gimat

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Akamai: Underappreciated Shift to Security and Compute Drives Value

MOI Global Equity Research — Wed, 18 Mar 2026 20:32:39 GMT

Steve Gorelik of Firebird Management presented his in-depth investment thesis on Akamai Technologies (US: AKAM) at Best Ideas 2026.

Thesis summary:

Akamai is a “growth at a reasonable price” opportunity navigating a pivotal business transformation. The core thesis rests on the company’s evolution from a legacy Content Delivery Network (CDN) provider into a diversified enterprise security and cloud compute platform. While the traditional delivery business—which historically dominated revenues—has faced secular headwinds from customer DIY efforts and competition, Akamai has successfully reinvested cash flows into higher-growth segments. The Security and Compute divisions now generate approximately two-thirds of total revenue and are growing at double-digit rates, effectively offsetting the decline in the legacy delivery segment. This shift marks a critical inflection point where overall revenue growth is expected to re-accelerate from mid-single digits to high single or double digits.

Akamai’s competitive advantage leverages its massive distributed edge network, comprising over 4,000 locations and relationships with 1,000+ ISPs globally. This infrastructure provides a unique moat for its Security business, which has grown to over $2 billion in revenue through acquisitions and cross-selling to an existing base of large enterprise clients. Furthermore, the company’s entry into the Compute market, catalyzed by the acquisition of Linode, capitalizes on the need for distributed, low-latency processing. This is particularly relevant for emerging workloads such as AI inference, where Akamai’s edge capabilities offer distinct performance and cost benefits compared to centralized hyperscalers. The company’s deep relationships with CTOs and CIOs facilitate the cross-selling of these new services to a sticky enterprise customer base.

From a capital allocation perspective, management has demonstrated discipline by balancing M&A with shareholder returns. Since 2014, Akamai has generated $6.6 billion in FCF, deploying $3.5 billion toward strategic acquisitions to build out its security and compute capabilities, while returning $5 billion to shareholders via buybacks. This has reduced the share count by 16% over the last decade, despite regular equity-based compensation. Consequently, FCF per share has compounded at 9% annually. The transition to higher-margin Security and Compute segments is expected to further support profitability, with these divisions boasting EBITDA margins comparable to or higher than the legacy business.

Valuation remains compelling relative to peers and historical averages. The shares recently traded at a free cash flow yield of approximately 5.2%, representing a discount to the company’s historical trading range. Steve noted that pure-play competitors in the security and edge compute spaces typically command significantly higher multiples. As the revenue mix continues to shift toward these faster-growing segments, Akamai is positioned for potential multiple expansion. With FCF expected to grow by 25% over the next three years—and potentially faster on a per-share basis due to buybacks—the current valuation offers an attractive entry point for a business with accelerating fundamentals.

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Steve Gorelik on Akamai

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Greggs: Capital Cycle Inflection and the Path to Margin Recovery

MOI Global Equity Research — Fri, 13 Mar 2026 21:01:13 GMT

Ben Beneche of Tourbillon Partners presented his in-depth investment thesis on Greggs plc (UK: GRG) at Best Ideas 2026.

Thesis summary:

Ben outlines the thesis for Greggs, a UK-based food-to-go retailer with a vertically integrated business model comprising manufacturing, logistics, and a network of over 2,650 stores. Unlike peers, Greggs owns its supply chain and manages approximately 78% of its outlets directly, a structure that drives a distinct margin profile and a lower cost-to-serve. This vertical integration underpins a symbiotic loop where scale efficiencies allow for lower prices, reinforcing its position as the UK’s leading brand for value. Ben notes that despite a fragmented market growing largely in line with GDP, Greggs has consistently gained share from pubs and service-led restaurants through store expansion and a superior value proposition.

The company recently faced a convergence of headwinds, including UK stagflation, cost inflation in food and wages, and a period of elevated capex focused on supply chain capacity. EBIT margins compressed from a peak of over 12% in 2021 to consensus estimates of 8.7% for FY25. However, Ben argues the business is approaching an inflection point as the heavy investment phase in logistics and manufacturing concludes. With input costs such as pork and energy moderating, and the supply chain investments laying the foundation for future capacity without proportional cost increases, margins are poised to revert toward historical levels.

Growth optionality remains robust through multiple channels. Management targets an expansion to 3,500 stores, a goal Ben supports via regional density analysis and strong underlying ROIC, which remains ~25% for new cohorts. Beyond physical footprint expansion, the B2B segment (comprising franchise fees and wholesale partnerships with retailers like Tesco) offers a high-margin growth avenue, generating mid-20s EBIT margins. Additionally, the evening trade, representing just over 9% of company-managed sales, provides high contribution margin optionality as the company leverages existing fixed costs to capture incremental volume after 4 PM.

As the capital intensity of the supply chain buildout subsides, FCF generation is expected to accelerate, potentially reaching £200 million by FY27. This shift from cash consumption to generation should allow the conservatively financed company—which holds minimal term debt—to enhance shareholder returns. While Greggs has historically prioritized dividends and employee profit sharing, Ben suggests the improving FCF profile creates capacity for share buybacks, particularly given the disconnect between the company’s intrinsic value and its current market price.

The shares recently traded at approximately 11-12x trailing earnings with a dividend yield approaching 5%, marking the lowest valuation multiple seen since 2014. Ben calculates an owner earnings yield of 8.5% for FY26, suggesting a mid-teens IRR is achievable through earnings growth and dividends alone, without relying on a rerating. With the stock down roughly 50% from its 2022 highs due to temporary macro and investment cycle pressures, the current price offers a compelling entry point for a durable franchise with pricing power and a clear path to margin recovery.

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Ben Beneche on Greggs

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Metro Bank: Strong Deposit Franchise, Underappreciated MREL Unlock

MOI Global Equity Research — Wed, 11 Mar 2026 20:40:35 GMT

Patrick Brennan of Brennan Asset Management presented his investment thesis on Metro Bank (UK: MTRO) at Best Ideas 2026.

Thesis summary:

Metro Bank is a UK-based challenger bank that has transitioned from a high-growth model to a distressed turnaround situation following a 2019 capital crisis and a subsequent recapitalization in late 2023 led by Spaldy Investments. Patrick argues that the bank possesses a durable “moat” in its deposit franchise, which features a cost of deposits significantly lower than peers at roughly 95 basis points and a high proportion of non-interest-bearing accounts. Following a 40% headcount reduction and aggressive cost-cutting measures implemented by CEO Dan Frumkin, the bank is pivoting its asset strategy to leverage this funding advantage. The turnaround is anchored by a majority shareholder with a track record in distressed financial investments and a management team heavily incentivized by a compensation plan that targets a share price roughly 3.5x higher than recent levels.

The investment thesis rests on three primary earnings drivers: asset rotation, treasury repricing, and regulatory capital relief. Patrick highlights the bank’s shift from low-yield residential mortgages to higher-margin commercial loans and specialist mortgages, targeting origination spreads of 350 basis points over base rates. Early results from H1 2025 indicate strong momentum with doubled corporate lending volumes. Simultaneously, the bank’s legacy portfolio of low-yielding treasury securities is maturing; rolling these assets into current market rates is projected to provide a cumulative 600 basis point uplift to ROE. This mechanical repricing alone is expected to drive returns on tangible equity from mid-single digits to low teens over the medium term.

A critical, hard catalyst for the thesis is Metro Bank’s exit from the MREL (Minimum Requirement for Own Funds and Eligible Liabilities) regime, effective January 1, 2026. This regulatory shift, resulting from an increase in the asset threshold for compliance, allows the bank to redeem £525 million of expensive debt carrying a 12% coupon. Patrick estimates this redemption will eliminate roughly £60 million in annual interest expense, contributing approximately 4% to the ROE uplift without requiring any new equity issuance. The market has largely ignored this event due to sparse sell-side coverage and broader negative sentiment toward UK financials.

While acknowledging macro risks related to the UK economy’s stagnation and potential housing market softness, Patrick suggests the valuation offers a substantial margin of safety. The bank’s “muddle along” scenario, which does not rely on aggressive economic recovery, still supports a path to a mid-to-high teen ROE. Furthermore, the strategic value of the deposit franchise makes Metro a logical acquisition target, providing downside protection. The alignment with Spaldy Investments, which owns over 50% of the bank, suggests a focus on eventual monetization or a sale, potentially to a private equity firm or a fintech looking to acquire a banking license and deposit base.

Metro Bank shares recently traded at approximately £1.25, representing roughly 0.6x to 0.75x tangible book value (TBV). Patrick believes this valuation is disconnected from the bank’s earnings power, projecting that the combination of treasury repricing, asset rotation, and the MREL cost savings could drive EPS to £0.40 by 2028. At a conservative multiple or through share buybacks executed at these depressed levels, the stock has the potential to triple. The disconnect between the current distressed multiple and the credible path to a 20% ROE presents a unique asymmetric opportunity in a market where the hard catalysts are already confirmed but not yet priced in.

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Patrick Brennan on Metro Bank

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PBAM: Well-Run SoCal Bank With Top-Decile ROA, Uplisting Potential

MOI Global Equity Research — Fri, 06 Mar 2026 21:00:42 GMT

Javier López Bernardo of BrightGate Capital presented his investment thesis on Private Bancorp of America (US: PBAM) at Best Ideas 2026.

Thesis summary:

PBAM is the holding company for CalPrivate Bank, a La Jolla-based institution focused on serving high-net-worth individuals, professionals, and closely held businesses in coastal Southern California. Javier outlines a thesis predicated on the structural advantages of well-run Californian banks, which benefit from the region’s massive economy and a vibrant ecosystem of small and medium-sized enterprises often underserved by larger competitors. With approximately $2.6bn in assets and $2.3bn in deposits across just seven branches, PBAM exhibits exceptional branch productivity. Deposits per office recently stood at $366m, substantially higher than the national average of $221m, providing a dense revenue base relative to fixed costs.

Since Rick Sowers joined the leadership team in 2018—later becoming CEO in 2020—the bank has demonstrated robust operational leverage and disciplined credit underwriting. The efficiency ratio improved from 74% in 2018 to below 50% recently, driven by deposit growth and cost control. Simultaneously, the loan portfolio has maintained strong credit metrics; approximately 80% of loans are secured by real estate with a conservative weighted average loan-to-value (LTV) ratio of 53%. Net charge-offs have been negligible in recent years, reinforcing the stability of the asset base. These factors have driven top-decile profitability, with recent ROA and ROE figures reaching approximately 1.8% and 18%, respectively, outperforming the long-term industry average ROA of 1.2%.

Javier characterizes PBAM as a GARP opportunity with distinct short-to-medium-term catalysts. The stock currently trades over the counter (OTC) with limited liquidity and virtually no sell-side coverage. Management has indicated an interest in uplisting to a major exchange like the Nasdaq, potentially in the 2026-2027 timeframe. Moving up the “Value-Add Bank Lifecycle Ladder” through uplisting would likely enhance liquidity, trigger index inclusion (such as the Russell 2000), and expand the multiple. Even barring an immediate uplisting, the bank possesses an ample runway for organic growth, with internal targets to double the asset base over the next three to five years without diluting shareholders.

In terms of valuation, shares recently traded at approximately 1.3x P/BV. Javier posits this valuation is disconnected from the bank’s fundamental quality, specifically its ability to sustain ROAs of 1.5% and ROEs of 15% on 10x leverage. Employing a residual income framework with a 50% reinvestment rate—implying a sustainable growth rate of 7%—the current entry price supports prospective IRRs in the mid-teens (12-14%). The investment offers an asymmetric risk profile where downside is protected by tangible book value and conservative lending, while upside is driven by continued compounding and potential valuation rerating upon uplisting.

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Javier Lopez Bernardo on PBAM

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Pluxee: Spinoff Dynamics, With Strong Management and FCF

MOI Global Equity Research — Wed, 04 Mar 2026 20:40:21 GMT

Jeffrey Stacey of Stacey Muirhead Capital Management presented his investment thesis on Pluxee (France: PLX) at Best Ideas 2026.

Thesis summary:

Pluxee is a leader in employee benefits and engagement, currently holding the number-two market share position worldwide. Spun off from Sodexo in early 2024, the company operates across 28 countries with a 45-year history. Jeff highlights a business model driven by three revenue streams: merchant fees, client fees, and float revenue generated from interest income on funds held in trust. The company facilitates over 4.8 million daily transactions for 500,000 client companies and 37 million employees, supported by a vast network of 1.7 million merchants. Jeff views the increasing corporate focus on employee retention and the “war for talent” as a structural tailwind for Pluxee’s engagement and benefit programs.

The business exhibits outstanding economics characterized by high ROE of 47.8% and consistent profitability. Jeff notes that the customer base is loyal and sticky, maintaining retention rates at or above 100% when accounting for organic growth within existing programs. While the company faces regulatory challenges, specifically regarding the Workers’ Food Program (PAT) in Brazil which has impacted merchant fees and float timelines, Jeff contends that Pluxee’s broad geographic diversity mitigates this exposure. The company remains asset-light and technology-driven, with all transactions occurring digitally via mobile devices or wearable technology, ensuring scalability as it expands its platform.

Management alignment is a core component of the thesis, as the Bellon family maintains a 46.2% ownership stake and has committed to retaining these shares post-spinoff. Jeff emphasizes this “skin in the game” as a primary driver for disciplined capital allocation. Under the leadership of CEO Aurélien, who has been in the role since 2017, Pluxee has demonstrated a balanced approach to capital deployment through tuck-in acquisitions, such as Cobee in Spain and Skipper in Belgium. Furthermore, management recently announced a $100 million share buyback program and a 9% YOY dividend increase, signaling a commitment to returning capital when the market price deviates from intrinsic value.

Regarding valuation, the shares recently traded at €13.41, representing a market capitalization of approximately €1.95 billion. Pluxee maintains a strong financial position with €1.2 billion in net cash, or €7.96 per share. When adjusting for this cash, the enterprise is valued at €5.44 per share. Based on fiscal 2025 EPS of €1.35, the stock recently traded at an ex-cash P/E of 4.0x. Additionally, Pluxee generated €1.79 per share in FCF, resulting in a 32.9% FCF yield at the adjusted price. Jeff suggests that these multiples provide a wide margin of safety and reflect an attractive entry point despite prevailing regulatory concerns.

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Jeffrey Stacey on Pluxee

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GCI Liberty: Cash Cow Asset With Tax Shields and M&A Optionality

MOI Global Equity Research — Mon, 02 Mar 2026 20:35:25 GMT

Chris Waller of Plural Investing presented his investment thesis on GCI Liberty (US: GLIBK) at Best Ideas 2026.

Thesis summary:

GCI Liberty is a classic “hidden gem” spin-off, offering investors the chance to partner with John Malone in his next serial acquisition vehicle at a modest entry price. The core asset is Alaska’s dominant telecommunications provider, a utility-like business that generates persistent FCF. Roughly 70% of revenues are derived from broadband services, primarily delivered to mission-critical institutions like hospitals and schools and heavily subsidized by the Universal Service Fund (USF). Due to Alaska’s harsh geography and low population density, GCI enjoys a natural monopoly with high barriers to entry, evidenced by its 90% share of government funding in the region.

While headline concerns regarding satellite competition exist, Chris argues the risk from Starlink is manageable. Detailed primary research indicates zero churn among Alaska’s 216 hospitals, which require the reliability, latency, and support of GCI’s fiber network—qualities current satellite offerings lack. Churn in the school segment is limited to remote districts without fiber access, a gap GCI is closing through funded infrastructure projects like the AIRRAQ fiber build. Consequently, the core cash flows remain protected, allowing the company to harvest cash from its capital-intensive legacy operations to fund higher-return opportunities elsewhere.

The primary upside driver is the transformation of the company into an “advantaged acquirer” leveraging three distinct strengths: tax efficiency, deal sourcing, and shareholder alignment. The spin-off structure created a ~$1bn tax basis step-up, which, combined with favorable depreciation rules under the “One Big Beautiful Bill,” effectively eliminates cash taxes for the next decade. Furthermore, the company benefits from the expertise of the Liberty Media management team to source deals, a rarity for a small-cap issuer. John Malone’s alignment is robust; holding 7% of the equity and over half the voting power, he has actively purchased shares and backstopped a $300m rights offering to bolster liquidity for M&A.

Management aims to replicate the Liberty Media playbook by leveraging the balance sheet to acquire cash-generative communications assets. Currently under-levered with ~$630m in net debt, the company targets a net debt/EBITDA ratio of 3.0x to 3.5x. Chris estimates this capacity, combined with internal cash generation, provides approximately $2bn in buying power. By acquiring businesses at roughly 5x EBITDA using a mix of debt and tax-shielded cash flows, the company can drive substantial accretion. The goal is to maximize FCF per share, potentially delivering 100-200% equity upside over a three-year horizon as the market re-rates the stock from a telecom multiple to that of a compounder.

The shares recently traded at $37, implying a $1.4bn market cap and a valuation of approximately 10x EV/FCF. This represents a discount to large-cap peers like Comcast and Charter, despite GCI possessing superior tax attributes and lower leverage. Chris posits that even without M&A, the downside is protected by the steady yield of the Alaska business, which trades at roughly 9x FCF on a standalone basis three years out. However, if management executes on the acquisition strategy, the stock could re-rate to 15x FCF or higher. The asymmetry is favorable: investors pay a value multiple for a protected cash cow with an embedded call option on a high-return capital allocation strategy led by a premier operator.

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Chris Waller on GCI Liberty

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Cavco: M&A and Utilization Gains Set Path to Double Earnings

MOI Global Equity Research — Fri, 27 Feb 2026 21:01:14 GMT

James Hannack of Punch & Associates Investment Management presented his investment thesis on Cavco Industries (US: CVCO) at Best Ideas 2026.

Thesis summary:

Cavco is a leading producer of manufactured and modular homes in North America, operating through 33 manufacturing plants and 99 company-owned retail stores. James notes that the industry has undergone substantial consolidation since the Great Recession, evolving from a fragmented landscape into a disciplined oligopoly where the top three players control 85% of the market. This rationalized structure has enabled stable pricing and margins despite volume fluctuations. James highlights that CVCO is particularly well-positioned to consolidate the remaining 15% of the market, as its primary competitor, Clayton, is limited by its existing 50% market share and another peer is undergoing a management transition.

The investment thesis centers on a favorable post-pandemic normalization and the acute shortage of affordable housing. While demand outstripped supply by 50% in FY 2022, constraints have eased, allowing for improved utilization. Manufactured housing represents a viable solution to the national shortage of 3.5 million homes, with HUD-Code units offering an ASP of approximately $85,000—a fraction of the cost of traditional site-built homes. James expects demand to be further supported by real wage growth among lower-end consumers and a stabilization of orders from the REIT and community channels.

Improving regulatory conditions and financing access provide additional tailwinds for the business. James points to recent legislative wins in Texas and New York that mandate more inclusive zoning for HUD-Code homes, effectively lowering barriers to entry in previously restricted municipalities. On the federal level, the industry is gaining visibility in Congress, and there is an ongoing push for GSE participation in the chattel loan market. James believes that involving GSEs would lower interest rates for the roughly one-third of CVCO customers who utilize personal property loans, thereby improving overall housing accessibility.

James identifies a path for the company to double its housing EBIT over the next four years by increasing annual shipments from 20,000 to 30,000 units. This growth is expected to come from restoring plant utilization to 85%, integrating the American Homestar acquisition, and pursuing further organic and inorganic capacity investments. Under the leadership of Bill, who joined the board in 2008 and became CEO in 2019, the company has maintained a fortress balance sheet and a disciplined capital allocation strategy. This approach includes programmatic share repurchases that have reduced the share count by 14% and strategic M&A that adds capacity without disrupting industry supply.

The shares recently traded at a P/E of 28x, justified by CVCO’s high-quality operations and improving ROIC. While the valuation is not optically cheap compared to smaller, less-scaled peers, James sees ~120% upside over a four-year horizon. This assumes EPS reaches $54 through a combination of 400bps in OPM expansion and high incremental margins. The downside is estimated at $280 per share, based on a trough multiple of 2.0x book value, resulting in a favorable 2:1 up-down ratio.

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James Hannack on Cavco

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Natura Cosméticos: Unmasking Core Value Amid Restructuring Noise

MOI Global Equity Research — Fri, 20 Feb 2026 21:01:10 GMT

Amit Wadhwaney of Moerus Capital Management presented his investment thesis on Natura Cosméticos (Brazil: NATU3) at Best Ideas 2026.

Thesis summary:

Natura is a Brazilian beauty and personal care company that dominates its home market, the fifth-largest globally, through a direct-selling model that emphasizes natural ingredients and sustainable sourcing. The company historically generated strong returns by focusing on Latin America, where it commands leading market share and leverages a network of 3.2 million consultants. However, a series of debt-funded acquisitions between 2013 and 2019 — Aesop, The Body Shop, and Avon — strained the balance sheet and diverted management attention from the core business. These missteps, compounded by macro challenges in key markets like Brazil and Argentina and the loss of Russian revenue, drove the stock to multi-year lows.

Amit argues that the recent valuation obscures the resilience and profitability of the legacy Natura brand. Management has moved aggressively to repair the balance sheet by divesting Aesop and The Body Shop, effectively eliminating net debt. The problematic Avon acquisition is being restructured, with the international non-LatAm operations separated and the Latin American integration proceeding, albeit with short-term integration costs. The core Natura business in Brazil continues to perform well, with underlying margins around 19.5%, suggesting that once the “noise” of restructuring and write-downs subsides, the company’s earnings power will become visible.

The thesis relies on a return to the company’s “circle of competence”—direct selling in Latin America—under new leadership and committed controlling shareholders. While the integration of Avon in Latin America presents execution risks, early signs of stabilization appeared in 2024 EBITDA results. The expectation is that as restructuring costs abate and macroeconomic headwinds in Brazil and Argentina potentially ease, the company will resume its historical trajectory of product innovation and profitability. The severe stock price decline reflects a “broken growth” narrative, but the underlying asset remains a dominant regional player with strong brand equity and a now-repaired balance sheet.

Regarding valuation, the shares recently traded at approximately 5.5x consensus 2025 EBITDA, a steep discount compared to global peers averaging around 18.8x and emerging market peers like AmorePacific at 10.5x. Even adjusting for the potential jettisoning of Avon, the core Natura business is valued at roughly 6.2x estimated normalized EBITDA. This valuation implies little to no credit for the turnaround or the inherent quality of the Natura franchise, offering a margin of safety for investors willing to look past near-term earnings volatility.

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Amit Wadhwaney on Natura Cosméticos

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AMN Healthcare: Capitalizing on Workforce Solutions Inflection

MOI Global Equity Research — Fri, 13 Feb 2026 21:01:06 GMT

Kyle Mowery of GrizzlyRock Capital presented his in-depth investment thesis on AMN Healthcare Services (US: AMN) at Best Ideas 2026.

Thesis summary:

AMN is the largest diversified healthcare staffing provider in the U.S., offering a comprehensive suite of workforce solutions that includes nurse and allied staffing, physician placement, and technology-driven workforce management. The company operates in a cyclical industry that is currently emerging from a post-COVID trough, a period characterized by compressed bill-pay spreads as healthcare systems shifted toward permanent labor to rationalize costs. Recent data indicates an inflection point; demand for travel nurses has rebounded approximately 50% from mid-2025 lows, and bill rates have stabilized with early signs of improvement. AMN’s scale, combined with its integrated technology platform, positions it advantageously against smaller competitors and “tech-native” entrants that have struggled with profitability and fulfillment during the downturn.

Long-term demand is supported by robust secular tailwinds, specifically an aging demographic driving higher healthcare utilization against a backdrop of persistent shortages in clinical labor. AMN has strategically diversified its revenue mix, reducing reliance on traditional staffing by expanding into high-margin technology and workforce solutions which enhance client retention. While the upcoming renewal of the Kaiser contract—historically representing a notable portion of revenue—creates a perceived overhang, the depth of the relationship suggests a high probability of renewal. Furthermore, a growing pipeline of vendor management system (VMS) and managed service provider (MSP) opportunities in late 2026 offers additional avenues for margin expansion and revenue growth largely ignored by current street estimates.

Financially, AMN remains highly cash-generative throughout the cycle, averaging robust FCF even prior to its recent expansion into higher-margin segments. Although headline leverage appeared elevated at 3.9x LTM in late 2025 due to cyclically depressed earnings, the company has successfully termed out debt at attractive fixed rates. Management expects leverage to naturally deleverage to below 3.0x over the next four to six quarters as EBITDA recovers. This strong cash conversion profile provides flexibility for capital allocation, including potential share repurchases or accretive M&A in a fragmented market where private valuations are resetting.

Shares recently traded at approximately $16, implying a valuation of roughly 6.9x estimated 2026 EBITDA and a normalized FCF yield to equity approaching 25%. This valuation reflects a market consensus that likely underestimates the pace of the recovery in bill-pay spreads and volume demand. As the cycle turns and margins normalize toward historical averages, the disconnect between the current share price and the company’s intrinsic earnings power presents a compelling asymmetry, with potential for material upside as operating leverage takes hold and sentiment realigns with business fundamentals.

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Kyle Mowery on AMN Healthcare

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Jeff Auxier on His Investment Principles, 2026 Outlook, and Fiserv

MOI Global Equity Research — Tue, 10 Feb 2026 16:35:19 GMT

Jeff Auxier of Auxier Asset Management discussed his long-term investment approach and shared his thoughts on intelligent investing in a speculative market environment at Best Ideas 2026.

Overview:

Jeff shares key insights drawn from a career spanning over four decades, starting with a cold call to Warren Buffett in 1982. Jeff offers a sobering yet constructive analysis of the current financial landscape, which he argues is characterized by historic levels of speculation, record margin debt, and a dangerous disconnect between price and value in “no-revenue” companies.

Jeff details his philosophy of “tenacious research,” focused on uncovering the “operating reality” of a business rather than following market sentiment. He explains his strategy of hunting for the “double play” — buying high-quality, cash-generating businesses at distressed multiples when they face temporary, fixable problems. The discussion moves beyond general philosophy into specific actionable analysis, comparing the risks of holding high-multiple compounders like Costco in the current environment against the opportunities available in beaten-down sectors such as medical devices and payment processors.

Furthermore, Jeff provides a nuanced take on the consumer staples sector, analyzing how the rise of GLP-1 weight-loss drugs and shifting alcohol consumption habits are disrupting traditional defensive moats. He also discusses the macro risks posed by Chinese deflationary exports and the potential unwinding of private equity valuations. Ultimately, this conversation serves as a guide on how to maintain discipline and protect capital during periods of market exuberance while preparing for the opportunities that inevitably arise when leverage unwinds.

Highlights:

Fiserv Thesis: Double-digit FCF yield, management change, fixable problems, and the potential for a “double, triple play”.
Navigating Speculative Bubbles: Why current margin debt levels and leveraged ETFs create a fragile market structure similar to past historic peaks.
The “Double Play” Strategy: How to identify companies with fixable problems to capture returns through both earnings recovery and multiple expansion.
Valuation Discipline: Why Auxier is trimming positions in high-quality compounders like Costco and avoiding “torpedoes”—stocks with high expectations and high valuations.
Sector Opportunities: An analysis of value pockets in healthcare (Zimmer, Becton Dickinson) and payments (Fiserv) versus the risks in footwear (Nike).
The GLP-1 Disruption: How weight-loss drugs and changing social habits are fundamentally altering the thesis for food, beverage, and alcohol stocks.
Global Macro Risks: The impact of China’s deflationary export pressure on global commodities and chemicals.
The Farmer’s Mindset: Lessons on humility, work ethic, and patience drawn from owning and operating a working farm.

Thesis summary:

Fiserv (US: FISV) is a prominent provider of back-office processing and financial services technology, distinguished by a nearly four-decade track record of double-digit earnings growth. Historically, the company has commanded a premium valuation due to its consistency, with a P/E ratio averaging over 30x during the last decade and trading as high as 91x earnings in 2000. The company strengthened its market position through the acquisition of First Data, integrating merchant services with its core banking infrastructure capabilities. Jeff identifies this as a high-quality business model that has recently fallen out of favor due to short-term operational headwinds in a speculative market environment that currently penalizes earnings misses severely.

The core opportunity arises from a recent growth deceleration where the company missed double-digit targets, delivering approximately 4% growth instead. This deviation from historical performance caused the stock to decline roughly 40%. Jeff views this sell-off as a classic overreaction, noting that the market is currently disregarding quality in favor of speculative momentum. The thesis is predicated on the idea that the underlying issues causing the growth slowdown are fixable rather than structural. The company possesses a robust balance sheet and a business model that generates substantial cash flow, characteristics that historically protect capital during market downturns.

A key driver for the potential turnaround is the appointment of a new management team, which Jeff believes is capable of correcting the operational stumbles. The strategy involves purchasing the equity when the company faces “fixable problems,” allowing for a “double, triple play” scenario driven by both earnings recovery and multiple expansion. Jeff contrasts this opportunity with other high-quality names like Nike, arguing that Fiserv offers a superior risk-reward profile because the valuation has already compressed significantly, providing a wider margin of safety compared to consumer stocks that remain priced for perfection.

Regarding valuation, the shares recently traded at approximately 7x to 8x earnings, representing a historic discount relative to the company’s long-term average P/E of over 30x. Jeff noted that the firm began accumulating shares when the multiple compressed to 12x earnings as the price dropped into the $120s. In addition to the depressed earnings multiple, the stock offers a double-digit FCF yield. This valuation disconnect suggests that the market is pricing Fiserv as a permanently impaired asset rather than a proven compounder experiencing a temporary cyclical trough.

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Brookfield Corporation: Superior, Owner-Operated, Long-Term Capital Allocation Platform

MOI Global Equity Research — Fri, 06 Feb 2026 21:00:28 GMT

Tito Avila of LIS Capital presented his in-depth investment thesis on Brookfield Corporation (US/Canada: BN) at Best Ideas 2026.

Thesis summary:

Brookfield is not a traditional asset manager but rather a capital allocator overseeing a diverse ecosystem of businesses. The company controls over $180 billion of discretionary capital and functions as a platform designed for long-term compounding. Structurally, the entity relies on three main pillars: a majority stake in Brookfield Asset Management (BAM), which serves as the fee and carry engine; Brookfield Wealth Solutions (BWS), an insurance platform providing long-duration permanent capital; and directly owned Operating Businesses in infrastructure, renewables, real estate, and private equity. This configuration allows BN to upstream cash flows from subsidiaries and redeploy them into high-return opportunities across the ecosystem, optimizing for returns on invested capital.

The thesis is underpinned by sustainable cash flow growth driven by structural tailwinds, including the demand for infrastructure fueled by AI, the energy transition, and an aging population requiring retirement solutions. Tito notes that BN is positioned to capitalize on the consolidation of the alternative asset management industry and the growth of private credit, reinforced by the Oaktree acquisition. Management guidance implies up to 25% annual growth in distributable earnings (DE) over the next five years, supported by the scaling of fee-bearing capital and the compounding of the insurance float. BWS is particularly strategic, utilizing an investment-led model to generate spread earnings by allocating float into high-quality credit and real assets where the firm possesses deep expertise.

A critical component of the investment case is the owner-operator culture and strong alignment of interest. Senior management holds a 20% stake in the company, fostering a long-term horizon and a focus on downside protection. Tito highlights BN’s history of contrarian capital allocation, utilizing a conservative balance sheet to invest during periods of stress when capital is scarce. While the real estate arm (BPG) has faced cyclical headwinds, the debt is structured as non-recourse to the parent, containing systemic risk. The strategy involves recycling capital from mature assets into higher-return opportunities, a process accelerated by the anticipated realization of accrued carried interest, which Tito describes as a “hidden gem” with $12 billion in realizations expected over the next five years.

Regarding valuation, the shares recently traded at a meaningful discount to peers and roughly a 30% discount to management’s estimate of plan value. Tito attributes this gap to structural complexity, lack of inclusion in major U.S. equity indices, and lower market visibility relative to competitors. A conservative sum-of-the-parts analysis, which marks public holdings at market and applies haircuts to private assets and carry, suggests limited downside. Even without a re-rating, the thesis projects a long-term IRR in the mid-teens to low-20s percent range, driven primarily by organic cash flow growth and reinvestment. Any narrowing of the discount through potential catalysts, such as eventual index inclusion or improved communication, would provide optional upside.

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Tito Avila on Brookfield Corporation

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AbraSilver: Silver/Gold Explorer in Argentina With Proven Leadership

MOI Global Equity Research — Fri, 30 Jan 2026 21:00:49 GMT

Private investor Samir Mohamed presented his investment thesis on AbraSilver Resource Corporation (Canada: ABRA) at Best Ideas 2026.

Thesis summary:

Samir views AbraSilver as a prime vehicle to capitalize on a structural bull market in precious metals, specifically silver. He contends that silver remains undervalued relative to gold and historic inflation-adjusted highs, with physical demand increasingly driving pricing. The company operates in Argentina, a jurisdiction that Samir argues has improved substantially under the administration of Javier Milei. The introduction of the RIGI investment incentive framework—featuring a reduced corporate tax rate of 25%, the elimination of export duties, and 30-year fiscal stability agreements—has positioned Argentina as a fiscally competitive destination for mining capital relative to regional peers like Chile, Peru, and Mexico.

The company’s flagship asset, the Diablillos project in Salta province, sits at a critical inflection point on the Lassonde curve, transitioning from the engineering phase toward development. A Definitive Feasibility Study (DFS) is expected in Q2 2026, with a construction decision anticipated in the second half of the year and commercial production targeted for late 2029. The current mine plan projects a 13-year life with average annual production of approximately 6 million ounces of silver and 72,000 ounces of gold. As an open-pit operation with secured local water access and no nearby communities to disturb, the project is estimated to achieve an AISC of less than $13 per silver equivalent ounce, placing it in the lower quartile of the industry cost curve.

Beyond the existing mine plan, Samir highlights several “free options” that offer upside not currently reflected in the share price. The company recently reported a 36% increase in resources, which will be incorporated into the upcoming technical studies to potentially extend mine life or increase throughput. Additionally, AbraSilver has consistently added roughly 40 million AgEq ounces annually through exploration. A secondary asset, the La Coipita copper-gold project in San Juan, provides further optionality through a collaboration with Teck, where the partner funds exploration costs to earn an 80% interest, allowing AbraSilver to retain upside without capital outlay.

The leadership team includes executives with experience at major entities such as Lundin Mining, Barrick, and Wheaton Precious Metals, providing the requisite expertise for mine financing and construction. Management and the board hold a 3% equity stake, investing alongside notable shareholders including Eric Sprott and Kinross Gold. Upcoming catalysts include the approval of environmental permits and tax incentives in Q1 2026, followed by the release of the DFS and an updated resource estimate in Q2 2026.

Regarding valuation, Samir asserts that the company trades at a distinct discount to the project’s intrinsic value. Using a base case with silver at $67/oz, gold at $4,200/oz, and a 13% discount rate, he calculates the NPV of the Diablillos project at approximately $2.7 billion. With the company’s market capitalization recently hovering around $1.3 billion, the stock trades at roughly 0.5x NPV based on the existing mine plan. When adjusting for the recent resource expansion and projecting continued exploration success over the next four years, Samir estimates the NPV could reach $5.4 billion, implying a potential upside of roughly 320% by mid-2028.

Disclaimer

Best Ideas 2026 is held from January 6-23, 2026. The content of this website is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. The content is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to sell or buy any security or other investment, or undertake any investment strategy. There are no warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, or results obtained from any information set forth on this website. BeyondProxy’s officers, directors, employees, and/or contributing authors may have positions in and may, from time to time, make purchases or sales of the securities or other investments discussed or evaluated herein.

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UnitedHealth: Market Misinterprets Cyclical Pressures as Structural

MOI Global Equity Research — Wed, 28 Jan 2026 16:40:32 GMT

Stephen Dodson of Bretton Fund presented his in-depth investment thesis on UnitedHealth Group (US: UNH) at Best Ideas 2026.

Thesis summary:

UNH operates as a dominant healthcare franchise combining UnitedHealthcare, the nation’s largest insurer, with Optum, a massive healthcare services arm serving 100 million Americans. This dual structure creates a distinct advantage, particularly in the shift toward Value-Based Care (VBC), where provider incentives align with patient outcomes to control costs. By owning both the insurance risk and the care delivery network (OptumHealth), the company leverages superior data and scale to drive efficiencies that pure-play competitors cannot match. The business has delivered consistent low-double-digit compounding in revenue and EPS, supported by high returns on capital and a diverse stream of profit pools across pharmacy benefits, data analytics, and care delivery.

The company recently faced substantial headwinds driven by a sharp, unexpected increase in healthcare utilization and an underwriting failure in its Medicare Advantage (MA) book. In 2025, the Medical Loss Ratio (MLR) spiked to near 90%, well above the historical average of 82%, as the company aggressively expanded into MA just as patient acuity and utilization rates accelerated. This mispricing was exacerbated by regulatory rate pressures and a lag effect from delayed COVID-19 treatments, leading to fears of permanently impaired earnings and causing the stock to trade at a discount relative to its history.

Stephen views these operational setbacks as cyclical and fixable rather than structural. Under the leadership of returning CEO Stephen Hemsley, management is aggressively repricing its book of business, increasing premiums on commercial plans by low double digits and ACA plans by roughly 25%. The company is also pruning unprofitable membership, projecting a loss of ~1 million MA subscribers to reset the cost base. While these actions will dampen near-term growth, they are designed to restore operating margins to the historical 8-9% range over the medium term, with the company expecting a return to regular growth by 2027.

Long-term growth remains underpinned by secular tailwinds, specifically the ongoing penetration of MA and the broader expansion of US health spending. As the industry transitions from fee-for-service to VBC—growing at 15% annually—UnitedHealth’s integrated model positions it to capture economics across the value chain. Optum’s diverse business lines, including OptumRx and OptumInsight, provide durability against volatility in the insurance underwriting cycle. Furthermore, the company maintains a shareholder-centric capital allocation strategy, consistently deploying free cash flow toward dividends and share repurchases, although buybacks have been temporarily paused to reduce leverage following the Amedisys acquisition.

Shares recently traded at roughly $341, implying a market capitalization of $310 billion and a 2.6% dividend yield. While the stock trades at approximately 21x depressed 2025 earnings of $16.32, the valuation compresses to roughly 16x estimated 2027 earnings of nearly $21 as margins recover. Stephen argues that the market is currently underwriting permanently lower margins of 5-6%, ignoring the high probability of a mean reversion to historical profitability levels. The current valuation offers a compelling entry point for a high-quality compounder temporarily dislocated by solvable underwriting errors.

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Stephen Dodson on UnitedHealth

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Celsius: Capitalizing on the “Better-For-You” Shift in Energy Drinks

MOI Global Equity Research — Mon, 26 Jan 2026 16:31:07 GMT

Elliot Turner of RGA Investment Advisors presented his in-depth investment thesis on Celsius Holdings (US: CELH) at Best Ideas 2026.

Thesis summary:

Celsius is a differentiated brand in the energy drink category, distinguished by a “better-for-you” value proposition that appeals to health-conscious consumers and fitness enthusiasts. Unlike incumbents Red Bull and Monster, which cultivate “extreme sports” or “blue collar” identities, Celsius focuses on functional energy with zero sugar and proprietary ingredients, a positioning that has successfully expanded the total addressable market by attracting women and former coffee drinkers who historically rejected the category. The recent acquisition of Alani Nu transforms the business into a diversified holding company, adding a complementary, female-centric brand known for viral social media marketing and a high-velocity limited-time offer (LTO) strategy that drives strong customer recurrence.

The core growth algorithm is predicated on category expansion rather than merely capturing market share from legacy players. Elliot notes that while the U.S. energy drink market is projected to grow in the mid-single digits, Celsius and Alani Nu are poised to outpace this by targeting the $100 billion coffee market, where consumers spend 3-4x more annually than on energy drinks. The integration of Alani Nu into the PepsiCo distribution network acts as a primary catalyst, providing “rocket fuel” for the brand by expanding its presence from mass retailers like Target into high-frequency channels such as convenience stores, where it is currently under-penetrated.

Operationally, the thesis acknowledges the friction caused by the transition to the PepsiCo distribution system, specifically inventory destocking that temporarily compressed top-line growth and weighed on the stock price. However, Elliot views these issues as transitional “growing pains” rather than structural defects, noting that scanner data indicates improving sell-through trends. The partnership with PepsiCo, which owns an approximate 11% stake in the company, solidifies Celsius as the “category captain” within the Pepsi system, a status reinforced by the appointment of a former Pepsi executive as COO to improve supply chain coordination and data sharing.

Beyond domestic expansion, international markets represent a substantial, largely unpriced call option for the business. While competitors like Monster generate roughly 40% of their revenue internationally, Celsius currently derives only about 5% from outside the US, offering a long runway for growth as it leverages global partners like Suntory. Additionally, the company maintains a robust balance sheet with a net cash position and has authorized a $300 million share repurchase program, signaling management’s intent to take advantage of price dislocations and allocate capital efficiently as the business matures.

Regarding valuation, the shares recently traded at approximately 17x forward EBITDA, a level Elliot describes as compelling for a company with this growth profile. This multiple sits at the low end of Monster’s historical ten-year trading range of 17x to 25x, despite Celsius growing at a faster rate than Monster did during comparable periods. With gross margins expected to expand from roughly 50% toward the mid-to-high 50s and free cash flow projected to approach $1 billion, the thesis models an annualized IRR of nearly 17% over a five-year horizon.

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Rivian Automotive: Exceptional Founder Pursuing Winning Strategy

MOI Global Equity Research — Fri, 23 Jan 2026 21:01:27 GMT

Glenn Surowiec of GDS Investments articulated his investment thesis on Rivian Automotive (US: RIVN) at Best Ideas 2026.

Thesis summary:

Rivian is a U.S.-based electric vehicle manufacturer transitioning from a niche player to a mass-market competitor under the leadership of founder RJ Scaringe. Glenn views the company as a high-quality business temporarily mispriced due to the cyclical nature of the auto industry and the capital intensity required for growth. Rivian established strong brand equity with its initial R1T and R1S models, ranking first in owner satisfaction by Consumer Reports for three consecutive years. The investment case hinges on the upcoming launch of the more affordable R2 and R3 platforms, scheduled for commercial rollout in 2026 and 2027, which utilize a vertically integrated strategy to control the entire technology stack. This approach includes a proprietary “zonal” electrical architecture that drastically reduces vehicle complexity by consolidating roughly 100 electronic control units into seven, thereby stripping out cost and weight while enabling faster software updates.

A central pillar of the thesis is the strategic joint venture with Volkswagen, which validates Rivian’s technology and addresses liquidity concerns. The partnership provides Rivian with up to $5.8 billion in capital across equity and loans, subject to achieving specific operational milestones—several of which, such as gross margin positivity in 2024 and 2025, have already been met. Beyond capital, the alliance allows Rivian to leverage Volkswagen’s global purchasing scale, moving the company away from venture-level component pricing. The joint venture aims to deploy Rivian’s zonal architecture and software across Volkswagen’s portfolio, potentially reaching tens of millions of vehicles by the end of the decade, creating a high-margin revenue stream distinct from hardware sales.

Operational execution remains the primary risk and catalyst, with a clear roadmap to reduce unit costs and scale production. Glenn notes that the contracted material bill for the upcoming R2 model is less than half that of the legacy R1, supporting a path to vehicle profitability. Production for the R2 is slated to begin at the Normal, Illinois facility in the first half of 2026, with a second facility in Georgia expected to come online in 2028 to support longer-term volume targets of 400,000 to 800,000 units. To augment hardware margins, Rivian is building recurring revenue through its autonomy platform, offering hands-free driving subscriptions at competitive rates, alongside potential expansion into insurance and maintenance services.

Regarding valuation, Glenn concedes that Rivian does not fit traditional value investing frameworks given that profits will remain negative until scale is achieved. However, he argues the shares recently traded at levels that aggressively discount the company’s long-term potential, having fallen from an IPO high of $180 to approximately $10. The valuation reflects the market’s fixation on short-term capital intensity rather than the de-risked balance sheet provided by the Volkswagen capital and a Department of Education loan. With a market capitalization depressed by upfront investment costs, the thesis presents an arbitrage opportunity on Rivian’s ability to survive the “valley of death” and emerge as a dominant, vertically integrated player with substantial gross profit potential in the coming years.

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Glenn Surowiec on Rivian Automotive

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Spirits: Why Structural Consumption Concerns Are Overblown

MOI Global Equity Research — Wed, 21 Jan 2026 21:13:44 GMT

Christian Billinger of Billinger Förvaltning presented his investment thesis on European spirits companies at Best Ideas 2026.

Thesis summary:

Christian presents a contrarian investment thesis on the European spirits sector, specifically focusing on the major listed players: Diageo, Pernod Ricard, Remy Cointreau, and Davide Campari-Milano. Historically regarded as high-quality compounders with robust brands, global distribution networks, and long growth runways, these companies generated approximately 15% TSR annually between the GFC and the onset of the pandemic. However, market sentiment has shifted dramatically, driving share prices down 60-85% from their peaks. This drawdown is primarily driven by fears of a structural decline in alcohol consumption, particularly in the U.S. Christian argues that these concerns are overstated and that the current valuation compression represents a cyclical downturn rather than a permanent impairment, offering an attractive entry point for long-term investors.

The bearish narrative centers on declining per capita consumption in the U.S., which has fallen 10-15% since peaking in 2022. Christian contends this decline must be viewed in the context of the exceptional, price-driven growth seen in 2020 and 2021, suggesting a normalization rather than a structural break. He notes that U.S. per capita consumption remained remarkably stable at 8-10 LPA for decades prior to the pandemic and that historical industry cycles—such as the 25% decline observed between the early 1980s and late 1990s—eventually reversed. Furthermore, volume is not the sole driver of returns; while global alcohol volumes have been flat over the last decade, the market value has grown 16%, driven by premiumization and positive category shifts where spirits have gained share from wine and beer.

The sector offers distinct exposures across the four main entities. Diageo and Pernod Ricard serve as large, diversified groups with broad global reach across categories and price points. In contrast, Remy Cointreau is a focused business with exposure to Cognac and the China/U.S. markets, while Campari acts as a hybrid with dominance in aperitifs and European exposure. Even within a flat aggregate market, specific brands and categories have delivered robust growth; for example, Tequila and brands like Don Julio and Aperol have achieved double-digit CAGRs over the last decade. Beyond top-line growth, Christian identifies opportunities for value creation through operational efficiencies and cost reductions, noting that the industry saw little operating leverage during the boom years.

Valuations have contracted significantly, with the diversified majors Diageo and Pernod Ricard recently trading at FCF yields of approximately 6-8%. The more focused entities, Campari and Remy Cointreau, recently traded at yields of roughly 5% and 3% respectively, reflecting their higher historical volatility and currently depressed earnings bases—Remy’s earnings, for instance, have fallen nearly 70%. While leverage remains a constraint for aggressive buybacks across the sector, Christian believes the current prices discount an overly negative scenario, providing an asymmetric opportunity if growth stabilizes or if management teams pivot effectively toward capital discipline and efficiency.

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Christian Billinger on Spirits

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Genesis Energy: Transformation to Pure-Play Infrastructure Unlocks Dividend Growth

MOI Global Equity Research — Mon, 19 Jan 2026 16:30:41 GMT

Nitin Sacheti of Papyrus Capital presented his in-depth investment thesis on Genesis Energy LP (US: GEL) at Best Ideas 2026.

Thesis summary:

Genesis Energy is an MLP operating offshore pipeline transportation in the Gulf of Mexico, marine transportation, and onshore services. Nitin highlights a corporate transformation driven by the sale of the company’s volatile soda ash business in Q2 2025 and the completion of a major pipeline capex cycle. These strategic shifts have eliminated the earnings obfuscation caused by historical commodity volatility and high spending, revealing a cleaner balance sheet and a stable, growing FCF structure anchored by three remaining business segments.

The company is now benefitting from a “flywheel effect” driven by rising earnings and declining capital intensity. The offshore pipeline segment, described as the “crown jewel,” features irreplaceable assets tied to deepwater drills with low lifting costs and high capacity utilization. As new projects like the CHOPS, Poseidon, and SYNC pipelines come online with take-or-pay contracts, volume ramps from developments such as Shenandoah and Salamanca will drive FCF growth. Concurrently, the marine transportation segment benefits from the Jones Act moat and a supply/demand imbalance that supports higher day rates, while the onshore business provides stable, fee-based logistics support.

A central pillar of the thesis is management’s newfound discipline regarding capital allocation. Rather than chasing high-priced acquisitions, the team is focused on deleveraging and addressing the capital structure, specifically retiring high-cost preferred equity with coupons exceeding 12%. The strategy involves modest 10-15% dividend growth in the near term, utilizing excess FCF to pay down preferreds and refinance debt. This financial engineering paves the way for a step-change in distributions, with a target payout ratio of 75% by 2027.

There appears to be limited downside risk to projections given the stable, contractual nature of the assets. The pipelines benefit from life-of-lease dedications, and the marine business is insulated by the prohibitive costs of new vessel construction and a lack of shipyard capacity. While a repeal of the Jones Act represents a theoretical risk, geopolitical dynamics make this unlikely. The primary variable is not fundamental earnings volatility, but rather the timing of capital allocation decisions as the company transitions toward a higher payout model.

The shares recently traded at $16, implying a near 50% discount to peers. Nitin estimates FCF will reach roughly $2.70 per share in 2027. The current valuation gap is largely a function of the depressed dividend yield during this deleveraging phase. However, as management executes its plan to increase the distribution to $2.00 per share in 2027, the stock is expected to re-rate. Applying a 7% yield to that future dividend implies a price of $28, offering ~75% upside.

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Nitin Sacheti on Genesis Energy

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Global Atomic: Strategic Bet on the Looming Uranium Supply Deficit

MOI Global Equity Research — Fri, 16 Jan 2026 21:00:26 GMT

Will Thomson of Massif Capital presented his in-depth investment thesis on Global Atomic Corp. (Canada: GLO) at Best Ideas 2026.

Thesis summary:

Global Atomic is a counter-cyclical opportunity in the uranium sector, distinguishing its management team as rare “Timers” who successfully acquired and advanced the Dasa Project during market lows. Located in Niger, the Dasa Project is described as a Tier-1, high-grade deposit with a 23-year mine life and 73 million pounds of reserves, notably standing as the only greenfield uranium mine currently under construction globally. Unlike its peers, Global Atomic is positioned to bring supply online in late 2027 or early 2028, timing its entry to coincide with the “teeth” of a structural supply-demand deficit in the nuclear fuel market.

The core thesis rests on a significant dislocation between the share price and fundamental value, driven by what Will characterizes as “headline” political risk and temporary financing delays. Following the 2023 military coup in Niger and the revocation of permits for competitors like Orano and GoviEx, the market has treated the jurisdiction as uninvestable. However, Will argues this view is superficial; the peer revocations were legally grounded in mining codes regarding non-performance, whereas Global Atomic has continued construction without interruption. The Niger government, which holds a 20% stake and relies on mining for 12% of its budget, is aligned with the project’s success to reverse declining national production.

Financing uncertainty has further depressed the valuation, specifically regarding the delay of a debt package from the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation (DFC). Will notes that the loan process advanced to the Investment Committee in December 2025 with a positive recommendation, and a resolution is anticipated shortly. Even if this primary option fails, management has cultivated alternative paths including strategic partnerships, royalty deals, or equity issuance. Stress-testing the thesis against a “worst-case” equity financing scenario involving ~35% dilution still yields a probability-weighted return exceeding 60%, suggesting the downside is capped while preserving exposure to the asset’s core value.

While the investment is driven by company-specific value, it is supported by a “favorable but insufficient” macro backdrop. Will emphasizes that while most uranium theses rely solely on unpredictable commodity price appreciation, Global Atomic offers a fundamental value arbitrage that works even if uranium prices remain static. The company has de-risked revenue by pre-selling 43% of the first five years of production to utilities, creating an asymmetry where investors can buy a fully permitted, partially built asset at a price equivalent to its exploration phase value.

The shares recently traded at CAD $0.97, a level that implies a uranium price of approximately $60 per pound, significantly below the long-term contracting price of ~$85 per pound. Will estimates that a DCF analysis using a 12% discount rate and current spot prices yields a value closer to CAD $3.00 per share. The probability-weighted expected return is projected at 89% over a 12 to 24-month holding period, with individual upside scenarios reaching as high as 300% as the project moves toward production.

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Will Thomson on Global Atomic

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